“As a demographer, I don’t think states should be overly concerned about these issues. They can be resolved through constructive negotiations between federal and state governments,” says Mr Goli. “My concern lies elsewhere.”
The key challenge, according to demographers, is India’s rapid ageing driven by declining fertility rates. While countries like France and Sweden took 120 and 80 years respectively to double their aging population from 7% to 14%, India is expected to reach this milestone in just 28 years, says Mr Goli.
This accelerated ageing is tied to India’s unique success in fertility decline. In most countries, improved living standards, education, and urbanisation naturally lower fertility as child survival improves.
But in India, fertility rates fell rapidly despite modest socio-economic progress, thanks to aggressive family welfare programmes that promoted small families through targets, incentives, and disincentives.
The unintended consequence? Take Andhra Pradesh, for instance. Its fertility rate is 1.5, on par with Sweden, but its per capita income is 28 times lower, says Mr Goli. With mounting debt, external and limited resources, can states like these support higher pensions or social security for a rapidly aging population?
Consider this. More than 40% of elderly Indians (60+ years) belong to the poorest wealth quintile – the bottom 20% of a population in terms of wealth distribution, according to United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)’s latest India Ageing Report, external.
In other words, Mr Goli says, “India is getting old before getting rich”.
Fewer children also mean a rising old-age dependency ratio, leaving fewer caregivers for an expanding elderly demographic. Demographers warn that India’s healthcare, community centres and old-age homes are unprepared for this shift.
Source link
