Real or not: Jake Paul vs. a top boxer next? Taylor-Serrano 3?

Emanuel Navarrete will take on Oscar Valdez next week in a rematch of their August 2023 bout that ended in a one-sided decision victory for Navarrete. The fight on Dec. 7 (ESPN/ESPN+, 10:30 p.m. ET) will be contested for Navarrete’s WBO junior lightweight title.

Navarrete (38-2-1, 31 KOs) is coming off a split-decision loss to Denys Berinchyk back in May challenging for the WBO lightweight title. Valdez (32-2, 24 KOs) recovered from the Navarrete loss with a seventh-round TKO win over Liam Wilson in March to become the mandatory challenger.

Can Valdez get his revenge against Navarrete in the rematch?

Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano delivered another classic in their rematch on Nov. 15, with Taylor winning another close decision. Taylor is 2-0 over Serrano, but both fights were so close that many thought Serrano deserved the nod. Will they complete their trilogy in 2025?

A fight had been talked about between Terence Crawford and Vergil Ortiz Jr., but it seems Crawford will not fight the rest of the year and Ortiz has his eyes on a new opponent. Same for Shakur Stevenson after William Zepeda suffered an arm injury in his last fight and pulled out of their planned bout. But when they do meet each other, will Zepeda be Stevenson’s toughest opponent to date?

And what about Jake Paul? Will we see him against a “real” boxer in 2025?

Mike Coppinger and Nick Parkinson answer these questions and more, separating what’s real and what’s not.

Real or not: Jake Paul will fight a top boxer next

Not real. Paul clearly doesn’t need to fight a top boxer to legitimize his fighting credentials when he’s generating big-time business.

Paul’s win over Mike Tyson didn’t prove anything about the social-media star’s fighting ability, but it did show that he’s one of the most popular fighters in the world.

Tens of millions of fans watched Paul’s glorified sparring session with Tyson, where Paul clearly carried the Hall of Fame boxer during the second half of the fight. Paul maintains his goal of winning a cruiserweight title, and with the amount of money he generates, fighters are lining up to fight him.

Unified light heavyweight champion Artur Beterbiev and heavyweight champ Daniel Dubois have called Paul out recently. Just don’t expect Paul to face anyone approaching that level anytime soon. There’s simply no reason from a business perspective. — Coppinger

Real or not: Oscar Valdez will avenge his loss to Emanuel Navarrete in their rematch

Real. Valdez will have to overcome Navarrete’s size and power with better movement than he showed in their first encounter if he is to become a three-time world champion. But he can do it.

Navarrete, the WBO junior lightweight titlist, dealt Valdez a second professional defeat when he defended the WBO title with a unanimous decision over his fellow Mexican in August 2023. Navarrete used his two-inch height and six-inch reach advantages in their first fight to keep Valdez at bay, so Valdez must adopt a clever game plan to avoid the rematch turning into another punishing defeat.

“I was a bit disappointed with my performance against Navarrete,” Valdez said to ESPN earlier this year. “He’s an awkward fighter, a volume puncher. … I made a few mistakes and I would change a few things looking back, but you learn from your mistakes.”

And Valdez has the technique and movement to avoid making the same mistakes in the rematch.

The 2012 Olympian responded to defeat Liam Wilson by seventh-round stoppage in March.If Valdez, who had a sixth-defense reign as WBO featherweight champion (2016-2019) and made one defense as WBC junior lightweight champion, adopts a more patient approach of box-and-move, he can nullify Navarrete’s threat and win a decision.

Much will also depend upon how comfortable Navarrete is at getting down to 130 pounds after last boxing at 135 against Denys Berinchyk. Navarrette is also in unconvincing form, after he lost a split decision to Berinchyk for the WBO belt back in May. In his last title defense, Navarrete had a majority draw with Robson Conceicao a year ago. Navarrete’s work rate was lower than usual against Berinchyk, and dropping weight could impact his energy levels. — Parkinson

Real or not: Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano will complete their trilogy

Real. There is too much money to be made and too much interest in a third fight for it not to happen.

A trilogy fight could be the biggest payday possible for both Taylor and Serrano after they delivered another classic encounter earlier this month. Due to the unprecedented exposure their second fight received for women’s boxing, as chief support to Jake Paul’s win over Mike Tyson on Nov. 15, the potential revenue for Taylor vs. Serrano 3, along with the controversial outcomes in their first two fights, make it likely to be one of the biggest boxing events — men or women — in 2025.

Serrano complained about the judges’ decision in the rematch (95-94 on all three scorecards), and also Taylor’s use of her head early in the fight, which left the New York-based Puerto Rican with a gruesome cut over her right eye. Punch statistics certainly suggest Serrano was more accurate with a higher work rate, but the rounds were close and Taylor landed bigger punches late in the fight.”I’m 100% interested,” Serrano said after the bout about a third fight. Many thought she also deserved to get the decision in the first fight in April 2022, which was awarded to Taylor by split decision.

Taylor, the undisputed junior welterweight champion, might be 2-0 against Serrano, but due to the debate around both decisions, there is real appetite for a third fight. It also makes financial sense, since both fighters reportedly received purses of more than $6 million in the biggest women’s boxing event in history, screened to an estimated 74 million live viewers globally on Netflix.

Serrano, 36, is already trying to persuade Taylor into a longer fight (three-minute rounds instead of the two-minute rounds currently in play for women’s boxing, and 12 rounds instead of 10). If Serrano gets her wish, the trilogy fight will be fought at a slower pace, which Serrano believes will suit her.

But Serrano may have to travel to Taylor’s native Ireland to make it happen. Taylor, 38, has limited time left in the sport, and one of the few remaining things she wants to do is fight at the outdoor Croke Park in Dublin. Previous attempts to stage a Taylor fight at Croke Park — with a capacity of 82,300 — have been unsuccessful, but there is plenty of time for Taylor’s Matchroom promoter, Eddie Hearn, to try again. Their first two fights were held at New York’s Madison Square Garden and AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, respectively, but a venue for a third fight will likely be outside of the United States, with Dublin and Saudi Arabia as leading contenders.

“I’d love a Croke Park fight, but we’ll see what happens,” Taylor said. “If she wants a third fight, I can absolutely give it to her.” — Parkinson

Real or not: William Zepeda will be Shakur Stevenson’s hardest test to date

Real. When the fight will actually materialize is another matter, after Zepeda’s trainer revealed the fighter suffered an arm injury in his most recent fight and won’t be available for the proposed Feb. 22 matchup in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

There were talks originally to match Stevenson in a WBC lightweight title defense against Zepeda in October, but the Mexican was unavailable due to the birth of his child. Zepeda ended up with a split-decision victory earlier this month over Tevin Farmer in his toughest test yet, as Farmer surprisingly knocked down Zepeda with a sharp counter right during the fight.

Farmer was selected because, like Stevenson, he’s a defensive-minded southpaw. Zepeda’s struggles have led to doubt he can present the more talented Stevenson with a difficult test.

Farmer, unlike Stevenson, will stay in the pocket and trade; he was able to stand his ground against Zepeda, a pressure fighter, and even pushed him backward.

While Stevenson could limit Zepeda’s whirlwind output by using his excellent footwork and jab, Zepeda’s roughhouse tactics, nonstop pressure and top-notch body punching should present Stevenson a formidable challenge. Of course, considering Stevenson has breezed by every opponent he’s faced, besides Edwin De Los Santos, that’s not saying much. — Coppinger

Real or not: Vergil Ortiz Jr. will face Terence Crawford on February’s card in Riyadh

Not real. Ortiz is likely to fight Jaron “Boots” Ennis, the welterweight champion who would move up to junior middleweight for his first real test.

Ortiz is coming off his best win yet, a disputed decision victory over Serhii Bohachuk in an August firefight. Ennis, meanwhile, scored a unanimous-decision victory earlier this month over Karen Chukhadzhian.

Both fighters have their flaws, and this match would represent a genuine coin-flip matchup between two rising stars in their prime. Ortiz and Ennis are both there to be hit and are also among the best offensive fighters in the sport, making this a can’t-miss matchup if it’s finalized for the proposed Feb. 22 super card in Riyadh.

And the winner would be well-positioned in the suddenly stacked 154-pound division headlined by Crawford, who won a title in his division debut in August over Israil Madrimov. Madrimov is set to fight Bohachuk on the Dec. 21 Oleksandr Usyk-Tyson Fury undercard, and a fight between the winners of both matchups is a natural for later in 2025. — Coppinger