NCAA volleyball tournament preview: Which teams have a tough road to Louisville?

It finally could be the ACC’s year in NCAA women’s volleyball. The league has two No. 1 seeds, Pittsburgh and Louisville, and the final four is in an ACC city, Louisville.

The other three major conferences — the Big Ten, the Big 12 and SEC — all have had national champions. So did the former Pac-12. The closest the ACC has come is making the championship match.

The last breakthrough for the ACC could happen with this tournament, and not just because of the strength of No. 1 seed Pitt (29-1) and Louisville (25-5). Two new members of the ACC are No. 2 seeds and also in the hunt for the title: nine-time NCAA champion Stanford and SMU, the only team to defeat Pitt this season.

Nine teams from the ACC, Big Ten and SEC are in the field, with six from the Big 12. In all, 12 schools have combined to win the previous 41 NCAA women’s volleyball championships, led by Stanford. Penn State and Nebraska, the other two No. 1 seeds this year, have seven and five titles, respectively.

Pitt’s fortunes have soared in the past decade. The Panthers were in an eight-year NCAA tournament drought when Dan Fisher took over as coach in 2013. The Panthers now are in their ninth consecutive NCAA tournament and have advanced to the final four the past three years in a row.

Those appearances ended in the national semifinals. Pitt — and the ACC — want to take the last steps to winning it all. But the Big Ten’s two powerhouses, Nebraska and Penn State, hope to add to that league’s trophy collection. And don’t count out two-time defending champion Texas, despite an 18-6 record and No. 3 seed.

The first and second rounds, which will be streamed on ESPN+, are played Thursday through Saturday on campus sites. The regionals are also on campus sites Dec. 12-15. The national semifinals are Dec. 19 and the championship match Dec. 22, both at Louisville’s KFC Yum Center.

ESPN’s volleyball experts break down the bracket heading into the early rounds.

Jump to:
Surprises | Toughest roads
Underdogs | Players to watch

Which team’s seed surprised you the most?

Sam Gore: I think the most anticipated decision was who should get the overall No. 4 seed. With Stanford beating Louisville the final week of the season and ending the regular season on a nine-match winning streak, I was leaning toward Stanford being awarded the No. 4 seed, and Louisville dropping to No. 5. So I was initially surprised at Louisville getting that No. 4. However, I was impressed at the convincing explanation by the committee as to why it gave Louisville the No. 4. Whereas most of us were looking at the past 10 matches, the committee was focused on the total body of work for the season, and Louisville’s complete résumé gave it the edge. All it did was give Stanford another motivating factor to prove the committee wrong, which could be great for fans to watch.

Aishwarya Kumar: There is so much parity over the board that I found the seedings after the top eight all over the place. Purdue being awarded the No. 13 overall seed (a No. 4 seed) really surprised me. The Boilermakers beat Kansas (No. 3) and Utah (No. 4) in nonconference play, and they finished fourth in the Big Ten. They also beat Oregon and Minnesota. I’d have definitely put them in the top 10.

Plus, who else was surprised by Louisville beating Stanford for the No. 4 overall seed? With Stanford’s hot streak toward the tail end of the tournament, I was confident it would get the No. 4 overall seed, but the committee decided to award it to Louisville based on the entire season. Tricky, but I will accept it.

Holly McPeak: We knew who the top three seeds would be after the last week of matches. The committee had a tough choice to make between Louisville, Stanford and Creighton for fourth overall seed. Louisville got the nod because it had the No. 1 strength of schedule in the country and no bad losses outside of top 10. Creighton being in a weaker conference hurt it in terms of RPI, but it had a good chance to surprise some teams in the tournament. Stanford with the big win over Louisville the Saturday before the selection show gave it a nice boost, but the loss to Miami, held it back at 5. The good news? The rubber match could possibly be played in the NCAA tournament in a regional final if seeds hold up and they both advance.

I like the bracket. There are some interesting first-round matchups such as Tennessee and Georgia Tech, as well as Hawai’i and TCU. The committee made sure that you would not play a team from the same conference as you during the first and second rounds, and that can be a difficult job. No real big surprises besides the four.

Courtney Lyle: I was surprised to see Louisville as a top-4 seed as well, but after speaking with the committee, it makes sense (as Holly explained). I also love the storyline of Louisville getting the chance to host all the way to the championship match. It adds pressure and drama to the tournament! The committee did not look at the host site as a factor in putting them in the top 4, but as a fan, it should be fun to watch.

Michael Voepel: Who the last No. 1 seed would be was the only big drama. Overall, no huge surprises or snubs, which reflects the fact that the committee has improved its bracketing process in recent years.

It’s notable that the demise of the Pac-12, previously volleyball’s longest-running power league, sent successful teams to other conferences. Six former Pac-12 schools made the 2024 field: No. 2 seed Stanford from the ACC, No. 3 Arizona State and No. 4 Utah from the Big 12, and No. 4 Oregon, No. 6 USC and unseeded Washington from the Big Ten. (The volleyball bracket lists only the top eight seeds in each region).

These schools all faced the challenges of new league opponents and big travel changes, but maintained the standard of play the Pac-12 was known for.

Which of the top-four seeds has the toughest road to Louisville?

Gore: This is the most balanced overall bracket I’ve ever seen. However, it does appear that Louisville has the toughest road. Not only could there be a potential Stanford rematch, but you could argue that several of the seeds in this region have what it takes to advance to the national semis.

McPeak: We have some blue-blood programs with lower seeds in some of the brackets, and it will make for some incredible drama. Texas having to go through a dangerous USC team, Creighton and Penn State to earn a bid will be challenging but not impossible. I will be keeping a close eye on that part of the bracket.

But in terms of a top-4 seed, Nebraska needs to beat Wisconsin which is a very good team and beat them for the third time this season. It is really hard to beat a good team three times in one season.

Penn State doesn’t have it easy with Creighton and two-time defending NCAA champ Texas in its bracket.

Voepel: Louisville, both for the path the Cardinals could face and the pressure to make the final four at home. We saw that pressure get to Minnesota in 2018 when the final four was in Minneapolis. The Gophers, then the No. 2 overall seed when the tournament only seeded the top 16, were upset on their homecourt by No. 15 seed Oregon in the regional semifinals. Minnesota had tried all that season to avoid talk of the final four, but it weighed heavily on them in that loss.

Louisville split its ACC matches against Stanford this season, so that would be a challenging regional final for the Cardinals. But they also may have to get past No. 4 seed Purdue in the regional semifinals; the Boilermakers were 25-6 overall and fourth (16-4) in the Big Ten. Purdue is on the short list of best programs to never make a final four.

Lyle: The left side of the bracket is going to get heated (meaning the Pitt and Louisville quarters). Playing Stanford for a third time would be really interesting for Louisville. I’m also watching Florida and Purdue in this quarter. Florida’s Kennedy Martin should scare everyone. She has had double-digit kills every match of her career. In the Pitt quarter — a possible SMU/Kentucky rematch would be interesting. UK swept the Mustangs in September. I think both of those teams, along with TCU and Oregon would be interesting to watch against Pitt.

Which team seeded 4 or lower has the best chance to make a deep run?

Gore: The winner of the No. 6 seed Minnesota vs Western Kentucky first round match could make a run. Minnesota has wins over Texas and Wisconsin, so it’s capable of beating anyone; and Western Kentucky may have forgotten how to lose, as it has won 24 straight matches! Based on the bracket, also watch out for No. 6 seed Florida, No. 6 seed Texas A&M and No. 7 seed FSU.

Kumar: I am excited for No. 7 seed Missouri and No. 6 seed Texas A&M. Both teams are super scrappy and they can really rattle higher-ranked opponents. Remember Texas A&M beating Texas at Gregory Gymnasium in an enthralling five-setter in October? Missouri has really surprised me this year. Setter Marina Crownover, who transferred from Texas, has really thrived in Missouri. She played a key role in Missouri’s five-set win against Texas earlier this season. If any team can cause upsets in the tournament, it’d be these two for me.

McPeak: Minnesota has battled injuries all year long, but it’s capable of matching up against any team in the country when it’s healthy. Melani Shaffmaster is really good and Lydia Grote, Emily Hansen, and McKenna Wucherer are a dangerous three-headed monster for the Golden Gophers.

Georgia Tech can be a dangerous team when it’s serving well and playing its style of defense. The Yellow Jackets have many experienced players who are ready for a big breakthrough in the bracket.

USC was one of the best blocking teams in the Big Ten. If they can minimize errors, I think they can upset some teams.

Oregon is a team that is dangerous offensively. If it’s able to pass and get its hitters good looks, and it can match up with lots of strong teams. Try to stop Onee Ofoegbu or Mimi Colyer when they are hot. I dare you!

Voepel: If No. 6 seed USC gets past an expected second-round matchup against No. 3 Texas in Penn State’s quarter of the bracket, the Trojans may ride that momentum all the way to a regional final matchup against the Nittany Lions.

In Pitt’s quarter of the draw, No. 6 seed Minnesota and No. 7 seed Missouri could make it to a Sweet 16 showdown.

Who is the tournament’s must-watch players?

Gore: There are so many who could hold this distinction, but in every Pitt match I’ve called, Olivia Babcock looked like she was a level above everyone on the floor. I’d also put Florida’s Kennedy Martin in that category.

Kumar: Babcock is the loudest, most obvious choice. Whether from the service line or the pin, Babcock brings flair and flash to the Panthers offense. Her jump serves terrify opponents, and her heavy swings leave them powerless. She brings a burst of energy to the Pitt team with her blocks. She’s second in the nation in aces per set. She’s a strong contender for player of the year. Coaches are spending extra time preparing for Babcock’s explosiveness. Texas coach Jerritt Elliott. said to me “Babcock is the biggest influence right now — she can really take over a match.”

But, here’s the twist. I am going to go with the less obvious choice: Kami Miner. She’s the best setter in the nation. Her precision with each set is magnetic to watch, like the air above her is a chess board (thanks to the endless hours of training she received from her father and former NBA player Harold Miner).

“We go as Kami goes — when she’s good, we’re winning and when she struggles, we struggle,” said coach Kevin Hambly. “That’s the pressure of being in that position, and Kami handles it with grace, and I have all the confidence that she’s going to be doing a great job.”

McPeak: There are so many special players. Babcock and Torrey Stafford of Pitt are both must-watch players.

Madisen Skinner of Texas is always a player who can dominate and elevate her game when there is a lot on the line.

Sarah Franklin of Wisconsin, the AVCA POY from 2023 improved her numbers this year and has been so consistently elite all season long.

Harper Murray for Nebraska is one of the best players in the game. Her foot speed makes her special, and she excels in every skill.

Martin is a special talent at Florida and lately 40% of its offense goes through her because she can score even when everybody in the gym knows where the ball is going.

Being a former setter, there are so many elite setters in this tournament. Bergen Reilly of Nebraska is fun to watch and makes it look easy. Miner is a dynamic player who gets her hitters in fantastic spots to score from everywhere on the court even if she is on her knees or bumpsetting.

Rachel Fairbanks of Pitt is elite and an amazing competitor. Her volleyball IQ is one of the best, and so are her work ethic and desire to be the best.

Voepel: To the list of elite stars add Louisville fifth-year outside hitter Anna DeBeer. She helped lead her hometown Cardinals to final four appearances in 2021 and 2022. She is Louisville’s top scorer this season, averaging 3.88 points per set. DeBeer and teammates Charitie Luper and Elena Scott were all first-team ACC selections.

Lyle: It’s Babcock for me (although I could choose about 10 different players — thank goodness we can watch them all on ESPN+ *wink wink*). Babcock is the reigning AVCA Freshman of the Year and she’s on the short list for AVCA Player of the Year this season (as a sophomore). I love how Pitt uses her all over the court. She has such a well-rounded skill set. Babcock has two triple doubles this season — kills, digs, aces and kills, digs, blocks. She’s a star.