At this time last year, Florida State had one of the best defenses in college football and was rolling toward an undefeated season. Today, the Seminoles are 1-9 and defensive coordinator Adam Fuller is out of a job following coach Mike Norvell’s decision to fire three assistants on Sunday.
How did it get this bad this fast? The Seminoles have the worst scoring offense in FBS at 13.3 points per game, but the collapse on defense has been just as dramatic. Let’s take a closer look at the Seminoles’ downfall to lead off this week’s updated stop rate standings.
What is stop rate? It’s a basic measurement of success: the percentage of a defense’s drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs. Defensive coordinators have the same goal regardless of their scheme, opponent or conference: prevent points and get off the field. Stop rate is a simple metric but can offer a good reflection of a defense’s effectiveness on a per-drive basis in today’s faster-tempo game.
Last year, national champ Michigan finished No. 1 with a stop rate of 81.6% in its games against FBS opponents. The top 25 teams in the final 2023 stop rate standings won a total of 249 games, with seven earning conference titles. Great teams find a way to get stops in critical situations.
Stop rate is not an advanced stat and is no substitute for Bill Connelly’s SP+ or other more comprehensive metrics. It’s merely a different method for evaluating success on defense.
Fuller joined Norvell in making the move from Memphis to Florida State in 2020 and succeeded in getting the Seminoles’ defense flipped over the past four years. The Seminoles got stops on 55% of their drives in Year 1, finishing No. 106 nationally in stop rate, but got better every year from there. Last season, they climbed all the way to No. 5 in stop rate after their 16-6 win over Louisville in the ACC title game.
This season, the Seminoles rank 109th in FBS with a stop rate of 52.4% through 10 games. It’s hard to fathom how far they’ve fallen. Last year’s veteran unit paired elite pass defense with excellent pass rushers and consistently got stops in big moments. The preseason expectations were extremely high for Florida State’s D-line, and it seemed like Fuller would be able to reload and keep this crew playing at a high level.
But if you look back on Florida State’s defensive two-deep going into that ACC title game, you’ll see 11 of their top 22 are gone: five NFL draft picks, three seniors and three outgoing transfers. Fuller had to replace 319 career starts off the two-deep entering 2024. This year, the portal pickups haven’t worked out and the competitive depth isn’t showing up. The results have been brutal.
Florida State’s defense has slid from 8th to 61st in SP+ this season, from 13th to 109th in points per drive and from 6th to 120th in third-down defense. But in fairness to Fuller, it’s tough to play solid defense when you get no help from an offense that has yet to score more than 21 points against any opponent and has the worst three-and-out rate (42%) among the Power 4. Florida State’s defense has been playing from behind on 65% of its snaps this season and has played with a lead on just 17%.
It’ll be fascinating to see which direction Norvell goes with his defensive coordinator hire and the steps he takes to rebuild his coaching staff this offseason. The Seminoles constructed a College Football Playoff-caliber defense in 2023. Now they’re starting over and hoping the right combination of coaches and talent can get them back to standard.
Here are a few more stop rate updates to note following Week 11:
Ohio State moved into the No. 1 spot in this week’s standings with a stop rate of 81.3% following its 45-0 rout of Purdue. Outside of the loss at Oregon, the Buckeyes have held every opponent they’ve faced to 17 points or less. Tennessee slipped from No. 1 to No. 3 and Notre Dame moved up to No. 2 after its 52-3 rout of the Seminoles.
Iowa State dropped out of the top 10 this week and is now 15th in stop rate following its stunning 45-36 loss to Kansas. The Cyclones have been excellent in stop rate all year, but they’re dealing with too many injuries and it’s starting to show in back-to-back losses.
South Carolina climbed to No. 10 this week after going on the road and holding Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt to a season-low 7 points. Nebraska and Navy moved into the top 25 while Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech dropped out.
Georgia has dropped all the way to No. 52 with a stop rate of 64.8% against FBS opponents. Another CFP contender, Miami, is right behind them in the standings this week at No. 53.
Note: All data is courtesy of TruMedia. Games against FCS opponents and end-of-half drives in which the opponent took a knee or ran out the clock were filtered out.
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