Shedeur Sanders seems to be out of No. 1 overall contention. How far might he fall?

It’s rare to see a prospect like Shedeur Sanders. Not the film — that’s familiar to prospects we’ve seen before. But everything else? It has been a strange journey.

No one knows quite what to make of him. And if they do, they’re not saying it at this point in the pre-draft process. Because — guess what — they want to keep it a secret that they want him. So while we wait for the 2025 NFL Draft, we’re all trying to make sense of Sanders’ mercurial nature.

Analysts initially considered Sanders the top quarterback in his class and the likely first-overall pick. But since the NFL Combine, Miami quarterback Cam Ward has eclipsed Sanders as the odds-on No. 1 overall pick by a long way. (Sanders now has the fourth-best odds.) It’s fair to wonder whether Sanders even wanted to go first to the Tennessee Titans, a small-market team with a long history of failing young quarterbacks.

But what about the Cleveland Browns? You could categorize them in the same way. It’s just that they have Kevin Stefanski, who runs a system that’s deeply similar to what Colorado runs. 

If not Cleveland, will Sanders go No. 3 overall to the Giants? They might match best, but there’s the issue of timeline, with Sanders’ development track potentially taking more time than coach Brian Daboll can afford (before he gets fired). So New York might not work. 

Would Shedeur Sanders be a solid fit with the Giants?

Will Sanders go No. 6 to the Raiders? Sure, but also, they just traded for and signed Geno Smith. Might someone trade into the top 10 to snag him? Or will he somehow fall all the way to a playoff team like the Pittsburgh Steelers at 21st overall? That’s possible, too.

The beauty of the draft is the not knowing. The unpredictability is where all the entertainment comes from. But with Sanders, we really don’t know. He could, in theory, still go No. 1. He could also fall to the latter-half of the first round.

It’s rare to get this much uncertainty around an elite quarterback prospect like Sanders, whose “heroic nature” has grown polarizing over the past few months.

Like I already said, there isn’t much question about his tape. He’s a straightforward player to evaluate on the field. There are obvious strengths and weaknesses in his game. He is actually the type of guy who would’ve fit in well at Alabama — and could’ve probably gone there.

“You know I had every offer in the world, right?” Sanders told NBC at the combine in February.

If he had gone to Bama, we’d be debating whether he’s more of a Tua Tagovailoa or a Mac Jones — both of whom went in the first half of the first round. Their pro prospects were quite similar, even if their NFL performance have gone in different directions. Like them, Sanders is a pro-style pocket passer. When he was asked who he studies most to emulate, his answer spoke volumes.

“Tom Brady,” Sanders told NBC. “I’m able to see what he has done and, mentally, how he was able to beat people with the mind. So physically, that’s why he was able to play to the [age] he was able to play. … That’s why I know I’m not at my best product yet. I’m nowhere near where I need to be and where I want to be and where I desire to be.”

Speaking to reporters at the combine, Sanders added more on the topic of Brady.

“My game’s not played from my legs, and not even just my arm,” he said. “What was Tom Brady’s best trait? His mental [ability]; he’s able to think. So, if you have those traits of greatness and I know where I’m headed, then why wouldn’t a franchise pick me. You’ve got the ultimate cheat code.” 

This is all to say that Sanders will succeed in the NFL based on his accuracy, smarts and anticipation — but not necessarily his arm strength. He’s quite comfortable in the pocket. He’s quite comfortable in a pro-style offense. On paper, there are a lot of qualities that make him a safe pick, more translatable to the NFL than his counterpart in Ward, who has the raw tools but less refinement.

Of course, the NFL is infatuated with strong-armed passers with size and athleticism. There are different versions: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson. But … let’s not leave out Joe Burrow, who is the type of passer that Sanders should aspire to emulate.

OK, now is the moment when we mention Shedeur’s dad. 

I’ve waited to mention him on purpose.

Because Shedeur didn’t go to Alabama. He went to Jackson State and Colorado. And in articles like this one, we often introduce Shedeur with the important contextual note: He’s Deion Sanders’ son. In fact, he’s not just Deion’s son. He’s also a product of Deion’s coaching, with the former NFL superstar serving as the primary coach throughout Shedeur’s career.

Some people see his father as an asset. Others see his presence as a potential issue.

“You think I’m worried about what critics say or what people got to say,” Sanders said at the combine. “You know who my dad is? They hated on him, too. So it’s almost normal.”

Is Shedeur Sanders’ last name hurting or helping his draft stock?

There’s Shedeur’s mentality. We saw it, too, in his quote about getting “every offer in the world.” He’s confident. Undeterred. Honest. 

I’d say he’s substantially more honest than most NFL prospects. He’ll tell you he has Brady’s phone number, which Sanders calls when he has questions about the game. He says things like, “I can’t live without the jewelry.” But it’s oversimplistic to think he’s all about himself. He has demonstrated loyalty to his teammates, on and off the field. 

“NFL wide receivers I fantasize throwing to? Travis Hunter, LaJohntay Wester, Will Sheppard and Jimmy Horn,” he said.

It’s another honest answer. And it’s generous to his former teammates.

Some teams interpret Sanders’ bravado as arrogance. The Colorado QB “came off as unprofessional and disinterested” to two separate teams, per NBC Sports’ Matthew Berry. A quarterbacks coach felt Sanders was “brash” and “arrogant,” per NFL insider Josina Anderson. 

This anonymously sourced messaging could be one of three things.

Maybe it’s not true. It is smoke-screen season when a team might attack a player’s character because that team actually wants the player to fall to them.

Maybe the statements are true, but largely because of Sanders’ design. We haven’t seen a draft prospect engineer a draft-day trade where Eli Manning said, No thanks! to the San Diego Chargers. We saw speculation that Caleb Williams’ father might try to replicate that sort of power play last year. But it never materialized. There are simpler ways to do this than to demand a trade. A prospect could simply act like he doesn’t want to end up with a team — and that, alone, could easily deter a team from drafting him. Most players won’t do that, because it would sacrifice earning power. But Shedeur has already made $4.7 million on his NIL deal with Nike. It’s a new era where fewer prospects will enter the league with as much financial pressure. Sanders is an example of this new generation of pro-before-the-NFL prospects.

And finally, maybe the statements are true for another reason. Maybe Sanders comes across as arrogant, brash or unprofessional because that’s the way he is wired. For better or for worse, he’d probably argue he’s simply an Alpha. And would he be wrong? He’s a college superstar, molded by his father, Neon Deion, and the newly elevated (by way of NIL) college football platform. Sanders has already started his career. He and his dad built up two college programs to come from nowhere.

Maybe he really doesn’t care how high he lands — only that he feels at home with the team that wants him as he is.

“The number of where you go don’t matter,” Sanders told reporters at the combine. “I referenced Tom Brady, because he was the best of the best in all categories. He didn’t go first.”

Far from it. Brady went 199th.

Of course, most current NFL starters went in the first round. And, in all likelihood, so will Sanders. But the point is this: NFL prospects do what most people do in an interview. They play it safe. They say what they think coaches want to hear. Because they want the job. They want the money. They want a shot in the NFL. It’s a bit of theater.

Maybe Sanders isn’t acting in his interviews.

Sanders owned up to his weaknesses in the college game: Footwork, drops and drifting in the pocket. But he also said this.

“I’m a product of what I had to adjust to,” he said, before NBC’s Chris Simms criticized Colorado’s pass protection. “I ain’t gonna lie. I like my O-linemen though. …  But sometimes, we wasn’t all on the same page.”

Is it finger-pointing if it’s completely accurate?

Sanders is only saying what every analyst would say about him — that his offensive line created tendencies of hero ball, which has hurt his draft stock. And Sanders also acknowledged that hero ball got him in trouble and it’s a part of his game that needs improvement.

So why shouldn’t he say things like this about his offensive line? Well, it’s probably not the answer that NFL teams want him to give. Because if he’s talking like that about his own offensive line in the NFL, there could be problems in the media and, perhaps, in the locker room.

Sanders might have a conservative, old-school style of play on the field, not unlike Brady (coming out of Michigan) — but off the field, Sanders is flamboyant and direct in a way active NFL QBs are not.

That’s the juxtaposition that teams are wrestling with. 

In these scenarios, football often wins out. This chatter will come to light as nothing at all if the Giants take him in the top three. All the reasons that might scare Cleveland could encourage New York, which is the city of bright lights. 

Sanders is unapologetically Sanders. By being himself in the pre-draft process, he might steer himself to a place that loves him for who he is — and is prepared to take on The Shedeur Sanders Experience. 

Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna. 

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