2024/25 NBA Over/Unders: Recap | Hoops Rumors

Over the past couple weeks, we’ve been examining projections for all 30 NBA teams for the 2024/25 season, publishing polls asking how many games each club will win. With the help of lines from professional oddsmakers, we’ve had you vote on whether each team will go over or under a given win total, from the Celtics (58.5) all the way through to the Nets (19.5).

Here are the full results of those votes:

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

• Boston Celtics (58.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
• New York Knicks (53.5 wins): Over (58.8%)
• Philadelphia 76ers (52.5 wins): Under (51.7%)
• Toronto Raptors (30.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
• Brooklyn Nets (19.5 wins): Over (54.3%)

Central

• Milwaukee Bucks (50.5 wins): Over (63.2%)
• Cleveland Cavaliers (48.5 wins): Under (51.6%)
• Indiana Pacers (47.5 wins): Over (57.2%)
• Chicago Bulls (28.5 wins): Under (61.9%)
• Detroit Pistons (24.5 wins): Over (60.2%)

Southeast

• Orlando Magic (47.5 wins): Over (57.1%)
• Miami Heat (44.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
• Atlanta Hawks (35.5 wins): Under (66.4%)
• Charlotte Hornets (29.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
• Washington Wizards (20.5 wins): Under (56.6%)

Western Conference

Northwest

• Oklahoma City Thunder (56.5 wins): Over (68.1%)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (52.5 wins): Over (65.2%)
• Denver Nuggets (51.5 wins): Over (54.3%)
• Utah Jazz (29.5 wins): Under (60.1%)
• Portland Trail Blazers (22.5 wins): Under (54.7%)

Pacific

• Phoenix Suns (50.5 wins): Over (57.6%)
• Sacramento Kings (47.5 wins): Over (62.5%)
• Golden State Warriors (44.5 wins): Under (54.4%)
• Los Angeles Lakers (43.5 wins): Under (51.9%)
• Los Angeles Clippers (39.5 wins): Under (50.8%)

Southwest

• Dallas Mavericks (49.5 wins): Over (78.0%)
• Memphis Grizzlies (47.5 wins): Under (65.6%)
• New Orleans Pelicans (46.5 wins): Under (60.6%)
• Houston Rockets (43.5 wins): Under (51.4%)
  
• San Antonio Spurs (36.5 wins): Under (52.9%)

In total, our poll respondents favored 13 overs and 17 unders, which is an interesting divide. In past years, there have been more “over” votes than “under” votes, but it appears our readers are less willing to buy into preseason optimism for certain clubs this time around. The Southeast and Southwest fared particularly poorly in this regard, with eight of the 10 votes in those divisions favoring the under.

These were the five “over” bets that received the largest vote shares:

1. Dallas Mavericks (49.5 wins): 78.0%
2. Boston Celtics (58.5 wins): 69.7%
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (56.5 wins): 68.1%
4. Minnesota Timberwolves (52.5 wins): 65.2%
5. Milwaukee Bucks (50.5 wins): 63.2%

The top four teams here all have something in common: Dallas (50 wins in 2023/24), Boston (64), Oklahoma City (57), and Minnesota (56) would all go “over” if they simply replicate their records from last season. And in most cases, that looks like a realistic goal — the Mavericks and Thunder arguably improved as a result of their offseason moves, while Boston’s roster looks pretty similar and Minnesota’s losses (including Kyle Anderson and Monte Morris) may not be enough to warrant a four-game drop.

Still, winning 57 games in the competitive West will be no easy feat for Oklahoma City, and winning 59 is a grind even for the best team in a weak conference — the ’23/24 Celtics were the first Eastern Conference club to win 59+ since Milwaukee racked up 60 victories in ’18/19.

Speaking of the Bucks, our voters appear confident in their ability to bounce back after a disappointing season that saw them experience some growing pains following last September’s Damian Lillard blockbuster and make an in-season coaching change. A full offseason and training camp with Lillard and head coach Doc Rivers is a reason for optimism in Milwaukee.

Here are the five “under” bets that received the largest vote shares:

1. Atlanta Hawks (35.5 wins): 66.4%
2. Memphis Grizzlies (47.5 wins): 65.6%
3. Charlotte Hornets (29.5 wins): 63.1%
4. Miami Heat (44.5 wins): 63.1%
5. Chicago Bulls (28.5 wins): 61.9%

The Hawks only won 36 games last season, so it’s perhaps no surprise that our voters aren’t enthusiastic about their odds of matching that total again in 2024/25 after trading away Dejounte Murray. I do think the offense could fit together better without Trae Young having to share ball-handling duties with Murray, but for the Hawks to match or exceed last year’s win total, they’ll likely need young players like Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels to take significant steps forward.

The Grizzlies are a fascinating case. They went just 27-55 last season, but were the NBA’s most injury-plagued team and will have several key players – led by Ja Morant – back this fall. This year’s roster isn’t quite the same as the one that won 56 games in 2021/22 and 51 in ’22/23, but it’s close enough that I was a little surprised not to see more votes for the “over.”

The Hornets are a poor man’s version of Memphis, with oddsmakers projecting a nice bump on last year’s 21-61 record with starters like LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams once again healthy. Our voters aren’t so sure.

The Heat went 46-36 last year, but lost Caleb Martin and didn’t add any major pieces. Jimmy Butler‘s contract situation is also a question mark — it’s not out of the question that he could be a trade candidate at February’s deadline if the first half doesn’t go well in Miami.

The Bulls won 39 games last season but lost DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso over the offseason and are expected to seek takers for Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic too. If they turn into second-half tankers, their under looks like a pretty safe bet.

Here are the five picks that were closest to 50/50:

1. Los Angeles Clippers (39.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
2. Houston Rockets (43.5 wins): Under (51.4%)
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (48.5 wins): Under (51.6%)
4. Philadelphia 76ers (52.5 wins): Under (51.7%)
5. Los Angeles Lakers (43.5 wins): Under (51.9%)

The fact that all five of the closest votes favored the “under” helps explain why we ended up with 17 unders overall.

The Clippers and Sixers are the most interesting cases here, since subtracting Paul George in Los Angeles and adding him in Philadelphia will make both teams look a whole lot different. It’s hard to get a feel of what both clubs might look like until we see them in action.

The Rockets, Cavaliers, and Lakers, on the other hand, are all pretty similar to last year’s versions. Oddsmakers are projecting a small step forward for the young Rockets (who went 41-41 last year), a step back for the veteran Lakers (who went 47-35), and essentially the same season for Cleveland (48-34).

What do you think of our picks in general? Are there any results above that you strongly disagree with? Did you make any over or under votes within the last couple weeks that you’re second-guessing now? Jump into our comment section below and weigh in with your thoughts!