Goldman Sachs tells investors Trump’s tariffs pose a major ‘event risk’ and to expect slower growth in 2025

The good-but-not-great forecast stems from Goldman’s belief that the macroeconomic picture is promising but that the election of President-elect Donald Trump increases the risks of shocks to the market. 

“In our baseline macro outlook, the economy and earnings continue to grow and bond yields remain around current levels. But event risk remains high heading into 2025, including from the potential threat of an across-the-board tariff and the potential risk from even higher bond yields,” wrote chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin.

Kostin’s outlook assumes that Trump will implement tariffs on cars from other countries and “select imports from China.” On the campaign trail Trump’s signature economic policy was a set of blanket tariffs on all imports. Economists expect the tariffs to be largely inflationary, as the elevated costs get passed on to consumers. On Tuesday Walmart CFO John David Rainey told CNBC that wide spread tariffs could raise costs for the retailer and, therefore, prices for its shoppers.  

Many of those negative effects will be mitigated by what Goldman expects to be a rosy economic picture overall with inflation coming down, a dovish Federal Reserve, and accelerated M&A activity, which could lead to increased returns for investors in companies that get bought. 

Throughout the year the S&P 500 will continue to be powered by the Magnificent 7, the mega-cap tech stocks that account for an overwhelming majority of the gains across the entire index. Though even their influence will diminish in 2025 compared to what it had been over the last two years. 

“The Magnificent 7 stocks collectively will outperform the S&P 493 in 2025, but by roughly 7 pp, the slimmest margin in seven years,” Kostin wrote in the note. 

In 2023 the Magnificent 7 outperformed the S&P 500 by 63 percentage points. Through this year those seven stocks have done better than the S&P 500 by 22 points, according to Goldman. Despite their eye popping returns, the fact that they so often dwarf the broader market has caused no shortage of consternation among a certain class of investor who fears that level of market concentration masks deeper risks in the market. For Goldman, though, the cohort remains the engine that will carry investors to returns, even in an average year like 2025 is shaping up to be. 

“The most consequential decision an equity investor had to make during the past two years was how much of a portfolio to allocate to the seven largest stocks in the index,” Kostin wrote. 

Overall, investors shouldn’t fret too much; the bank still forecasts solid returns for the index. The S&P 500 will hit 6,500 by the end of 2025, an 11% increase from where it currently sits, states the forecast. If investors include dividend payments that will mean returns of 12%. 

While still a healthy return, 11% pales in comparison to the last two years’ performance. In 2023, the S&P 500 rallied strongly, ending the year up 24%. So far this year it’s also up 24%. That’s after investors started out the year rather bearish expecting only a 2% gain, according to a February poll from Reuters. The growth trajectory for the S&P 500 assumes 2.5% real GDP growth that leads to 5% sales growth across the index. Goldman also sees inflation moderating to 2.4% by the end of 2025. 

Despite the fact investors can expect to see some gains in 2025, Goldman acknowledges their outlook for next year would only rank as a middling annual return. “The projected gain of 11% would rank in the 46th percentile of historical distribution of 12-month S&P 500 returns since 1980,” Kostin said. 

Goldman’s latest forecast comes after an especially bearish view from October that projected a 3% nominal return over the next 10 years. It also comes after the U.S. electorate picked the president-elect that will be steering its economy for the next four years. (Throughout the note, Kostin and team reference Trump’s famous autobiography The Art of the Deal with quips such as “Think Big” and “Maximize your Options.”)

As Goldman prepares for Trump’s first year back in office, it cautions investors against missing out on the Magnificent 7’s growth even amid a market that expects middle-of-road returns. 

“Portfolio managers who embraced the ‘Magnificent 7’ have been rewarded; many who did not have suffered,” Kostin said.