Despite the short-term boost to markets upon confirmed news of a second Donald Trump presidency, analysts aren’t yet convinced about what that means for the long-term economy.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the man who has earned the nickname ‘Dr Doom’ for his usually somber forecasts has a decidedly gloomy outlook.
Dr Doom—real name Nouriel Roubini—earned the moniker after his 2006 warning of a housing correction and oncoming recession, which was initially laughed off.
Of course, a matter of years later, his forecast came true with the Global Financial Crisis—and markets have heeded his insights ever since.
With the countdown to Trump’s return to the Oval Office, Roubini is predicting what might happen under the Republican administration—and it’s not good.
“Some of the economic policies of Trump may lead to high economic growth,” Roubini told Bloomberg this week.
But he countered: “Unfortunately many of the other policies are going to have an implication of higher inflation and lower economic growth.
“The first thing he has already announced is going to be tariffs against Mexico, Canada and China and that’s only the beginning.”
Indeed, even key European trading partners won’t avoid such treatment.
Reuters reported last month that Trump was considering new terms with “nice little European countries,” telling a Pennsylvania rally: “They don’t take our cars. They don’t take our farm products. They sell millions and millions of cars in the United States. No, no, no, they are going to have to pay a big price.”
Roubini also listed a raft of other Trump policies that he believes will push up prices: making certain tax cuts permanent, potentially weakening the dollar, and interfering with the independence of the Fed.
He continued: “Getting out of the Paris Accords is going to make climate change much worse [and] increase food prices and things of that sort.
“So if you look at this list of policies … all of them have the impact that over time inflation will be higher, growth is going to be lower.”
Outlining how the investment advice out of his consultancy Roubini Macro Associates will change as a result, the Professor Emeritus at New York University explained: “If you look at this list of policies and others, all of them have the impact that over time inflation will be higher, growth is going to be lower.
“That’s a standard analysis of what’s going to be the implication of these policies.
“So we have to worry about a world in which … bond yields on the long side may be much higher than 4%, they might go towards 6%, 7 %, even 8% and a scenario when inflation goes from 2% through 3%, 4%, 5%.”
Such a course would not be welcome news for consumers who have already had to navigate high housing costs and inflated grocery prices—especially as they are only now seeing rates normalize back down to the Fed’s target of 2%.
Inflation + low growth = stagflation
Roubini also has concerns about Trump’s mass deportation proposals, saying: “In the last few years the increase in migration has kept the legal wage growth, has increased the labor supply, has increased economic growth.
“So definitely mass deportation is stagflationary.”
Despite being on the more gloomy end of the forecast scale, Roubini isn’t alone in his concern over stagflation.
While his concerns don’t relate to Trump policies, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon also sees stagflation coming down the line.
“I look at the amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus that has taken place over the last five years—it has been so extraordinary, how can you tell me it won’t lead to stagflation?” he told AllianceBernstein’s Strategic Decisions conference in May.
“It might not,” he said. “But I, for one, am quite prepared for it.”
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