Can Lady Gaga and Joaquin Phoenix Still Earn Oscar Noms for ‘Joker 2?

Lady Gaga will likely take on her first supporting actress Oscar run for “Joker: Folie à Deux.” But how far can “Mother Monster” take a movie with such abysmal reviews?

“Joker: Folie à Deux” picks up with Arthur Fleck (Joaquin Phoenix), institutionalized at Arkham Asylum, awaiting trial for his violent crimes. As he grapples with his fractured identity, Arthur finds love with fellow inmate Lee (Gaga) and begins embracing the music that has always played inside his chaotic mind.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

For those who haven’t seen it, this is not a case of “category fraud.” Gaga’s role is surprisingly limited. While she brings her formidable presence to the screen, her character takes a backseat to Fleck’s internal turmoil, often serving as a musical complement when the film calls for it. Gaga’s portrayal of Harley Quinn offers a dark, nuanced take on the iconic villain — it’s a more reserved, sinister interpretation than you might expect. It’s also the film’s one true standout performance (along with Leigh Gill, reprising his role as Gary Puddles from the first film).

This year, however, Gaga faces stiff competition from an overflowing supporting actress roster, which includes other notable musicians such as Selena Gomez (“Emilia Pérez”), Ariana Grande (“Wicked”), and Jennifer Lopez (“Unstoppable”). Should all secure noms (highly unlikely), could you imagine the Oscar ratings? But does Warner Bros. bet its “Joker” card solely on Gaga?

The original “Joker” (2019) divided critics, even after winning the Golden Lion at Venice. Yet, despite the polarized reception, it earned 11 Oscar nominations, including one for best picture, the most of any film that year. And its competition included “1917,” “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” and eventual winner “Parasite.” With a Rotten Tomatoes score of 68% at the time (now 69%), it became one of the lowest-rated best picture nominated films in Oscar history.

So, what are this musical movie’s Oscar prospects? Currently, “Joker: Folie à Deux” holds a 35% on Rotten Tomatoes, and any chances of awards attention may hinge on whether Gaga’s performance is embraced.

As I examined the field of potential nominees (curated in this week’s Oscar prediction updates), I don’t see any film that would “make people mad.” There’s nothing like a “Green Book” or “The Reader” to make critics seethe with anger. Wouldn’t “Joker 2” fit that bill?

Gaga has already proven herself to be an awards season mainstay. In 2018, she became only the second person (after Mary J. Blige) to be nominated for both acting and songwriting in the same year for “A Star Is Born.” She took home the Oscar for best original song for “Shallow” alongside Andrew Wyatt, Anthony Rossomando, and Mark Ronson. In 2021, she garnered nominations across the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, Critics Choice, and BAFTAs for her role as Patrizia Reggiani in “House of Gucci” but was notably snubbed by the Academy. A high-profile figure, such as the Grammy-winning star, ensures industry voters will watch the movie before casting their ballots. She also penned the title track that plays in the film (and is eligible to be submitted), but it’s still unclear whether Gaga will choose to put it into consideration.

While “Joker: Folie à Deux” has been panned, the film boasts a roster of respected Hollywood talent behind the camera, which could bolster its chances of getting noms. Oscar-winning composer Hildur Guðnadóttir, cinematographer Lawrence Sher, editor Jeff Groth, production designer Mark Friedberg, set decorator Karen O’Hara, and costume designer Arianne Phillips — all of whom were recognized for the first “Joker” — could be contenders within their respective branches.

And then, of course, there’s Phoenix. A revered figure among his fellow actors, he won his Oscar for playing Joker in the first film and has three additional nominations to his name. The Oscars has a long-standing tradition of recognizing actors who undergo intense physical and emotional transformations for their roles. Phoenix’s performance in “Folie à Deux,” much like his haunting turn in the original, is terrifying — he looks even thinner than the last entry — and showcases his musical range. It’s the kind of dedication actors tends to notice and love to reward. But not every time. While some transformations like Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club”) sweep awards seasons, others — such as Christian Bale in “The Machinist” — are snubbed entirely. Phoenix’s ability to navigate the awards landscape (and continue to avoid questions about exiting Todd Haynes’ movie) will be vital. The film also needs to perform at the box office for it to be considered.

What could help Phoenix is that the best actor category is seemingly less crowded, offering a slightly easier path to a nom. The Actors Branch has also been known to overlook a film’s reviews in favor of the established love of its thespian star. You can look at previously nominated actors like Cate Blanchett (another panned sequel, 2007’s “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”), Denzel Washington (2017’s “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”), Glenn Close (2020’s “Hillbilly Elegy”), Stanley Tucci (2009’s “The Lovely Bones”), Sean Penn (2001’s “I Am Sam”), and the list goes on. That little bit of a difference could assist him in pushing past names like Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), Paul Mescal (“Gladiator II”), and Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”), regardless of whether the general public believes his performance “deserves” it or not.

Here’s an interesting Oscars statistic: In its 96-year history, 102 films have received 10 or more nominations. Of those, only 16 — “Mrs. Miniver,” “Going My Way,” “Airport,” “The Godfather,” “The Godfather Part II,” “Chinatown,” “The Exorcist,” “The Sting,” “Rocky,” “Star Wars,” “Terms of Endearment,” “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,” “Gladiator,” “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring,” “Joker” and “Dune” — have spawned direct sequels. Four of them went on to receive best picture noms once again, with three still pending their outcomes, which include this year’s “Dune: Part Two,” “Gladiator II” and “Folie à Deux.”

When forecasting the Oscars, one must never forget that critics are not Oscar voters. Since 2018, the tastes of critics and Academy voters have diverged noticeably. Films like “Bohemian Rhapsody,” “Vice,” “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” “Don’t Look Up,” and best picture winner “Green Book” all received a lot of criticism from the media and reviewers, but went on to earn major Oscar nods. Could “Folie à Deux” be this year’s divisive nominee that “gets everyone mad?” Only time will tell.