South Sudan’s ‘dire’ situation risks return to civil war, warns top UN envoy

The top UN official in South Sudan has warned the country is on the brink of a renewed civil war after the government abruptly postponed the latest round of peace efforts.

Describing the situation as “dire”, Nicholas Haysom, the UN Special Representative and head of the peacekeeping mission in South Sudan, said on Monday that international efforts to support peace will only succeed if President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar are prepared to engage constructively and “put the interests of their people ahead of their own”.

South Sudan, the world’s youngest nation, gained independence from Sudan in 2011, following decades of conflict. But by 2013, it descended into a civil war rooted in ethnic divisions, as forces loyal to Kiir, an ethnic Dinka, clashed with supporters of Machar, a Nuer.

The conflict claimed the lives of more than 400,000 people before a peace agreement establishing a unity government was signed in 2018. While elections were initially set for 2023, they have been postponed twice, and are now expected in 2026.

Recent tensions have flared in the north of the country, where government troops have been fighting a militia known as the White Army — widely believed to be aligned with Machar.

On 4 March, the White Army reportedly overran a military garrison in Nasir, prompting a forceful government response, including the surrounding of Machar’s residence in the capital, Juba and the arrest of several of his allies. 

Days later, a UN helicopter evacuating government soldiers from Nasir came under fire, resulting in multiple fatalities, among them a South Sudanese general.

Rising political tensions

Haysom warned that tensions and violence are escalating as the elections approach, and that political competition between longtime rivals Kiir and Machar is intensifying.

He also noted that Kiir and Machar do not have sufficient trust in one another to demonstrate the leadership necessary to enforce the 2018 peace accord and steer South Sudan towards a secure and democratic path forward. 

“Given this grim situation, we are left with no other conclusion but to assess that South Sudan is teetering on the edge of a relapse into civil war,” Haysom added.

A return to conflict, he said, would risk repeating the horrors of 2013 and 2016, when violence devastated communities and displaced millions.

To help de-escalate the crisis, the UN peacekeeping mission, which has nearly 18,000 personnel, is engaged in intensive shuttle diplomacy with international and regional stakeholders, including the African Union.

The unified message, Haysom said, is for Kiir and Machar to meet, recommit to the 2018 peace deal, uphold the ceasefire, release detained officials and resolve disputes “through dialogue rather than military confrontation.”