Iran and Israel have pursued a shadow war for decades, adhering to a policy of “no war, no peace”. However, it now appears that this status quo is ending.
Israel has vowed to respond severely, with Netanyahu warning that “Iran made a big mistake and it will pay for it”.
There are also indications of a shift in tone and strategy from the US.
In April, President Joe Biden urged restraint after Israeli and US-led forces shot down most of the 300 drones and missiles that Iran launched at Israel in retaliation for an air strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria that killed several top IRGC commanders. Israel heeded the US call and responded by launching a missile that hit an Iranian air defence battery in central Iran.
But this time, Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warned there would be “severe consequences” for the Iranian attack and that the US will “work with Israel to make that the case”.
Israeli media cited Israeli officials as saying on Wednesday that Israel was preparing for retaliatory strikes on Iran “within days”, and that they would target “strategic sites”, including the country’s vital oil facilities.
The officials also warned that Iran’s nuclear facilities would be hit if it made good on its threat to strike back at Israel.
Senior Iranian officials have asserted that they consider their retaliation for the killing of Haniyeh, Nasrallah and Nilforoushan to be over unless they are provoked further.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also said he had conveyed a message to the US through the Swiss embassy in Tehran warning it “not to intervene”.
He cautioned: “Any third country that assists Israel or allows its airspace to be used against Iran will be considered a legitimate target.”
The US has approximately 40,000 troops stationed in the Middle East, with many deployed in Iraq and Syria. These troops could be threatened by Iran-backed Shia militias in both countries.
Iran must now brace itself for the Israeli response and hope its gamble pays off.
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