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François Bayrou commands respect – but will he succeed?

Bayrou, who was a teacher of classical languages in his 20s, served as education minister from 1993 to 1997. But that was his last meaningful experience of government.

Very briefly in 2017 he was Macron’s justice minister, but stepped down after being accused in a party funding scandal.

He was eventually cleared of wrongdoing, but many of his colleagues were convicted. And prosecutors have appealed against his acquittal, meaning he could yet be brought back to court.

An observant Catholic with six children, Bayrou’s political base is in the Pyrenean city of Pau where he has been mayor since 2014. He speaks the local Bearnese language and is a strong believer in decentralisation.

Bayrou has run for the presidency three times, as standard-bearer of the centre. He was closest to victory in 2007, when he came third with nearly 19% of the vote. He then angered the future winner Nicolas Sarkozy by coming out in support of the Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal.

When the only possible means of survival for a minority government is to build bridges on left and right, Bayrou has the advantage of having passable relations with both sides.

His backing for Royal and then François Hollande in 2012 has established a certain trust among the Socialists. But his views on debt – and the need to bring it down – help him on the right.

Interestingly his relationship with Marine Le Pen of the populist right is also respectful. In the past he has helped her collect the sponsorships needed to run for the presidency, arguing that it would be an affront to democracy if the leader of the most popular party could not stand.

Similar sentiments led to support for Le Pen, when the prosecutor in her own party funding trial (a similar case to his own) recently demanded she be declared ineligible for public office.

This may mean that Bayrou can avoid an automatic censure from the populist right.

But Le Pen’s National Rally has also warned that if the new prime minister is “Barnier with another face” it will not hesitate to bring him down.

According to France’s veteran political commentator Alain Duhamel, Bayrou is an independent-minded and highly experienced figure who – though allied to Macron – will not hesitate to exert his power at Hotel Matignon, his official residence.

“He will not be easily disciplined,” said Duhamel. “And he will tilt policy more towards the left.”


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