Fear of the unknown or unique chance? How Israel plays its cards in the Syrian crisis

Israel has warned the US about its security concerns concerning the future of Syria. The Israeli defence minister Israel Katz and his American counterpart, Lloyd Austin, have convened to establish “permanent consultations” on the evolutions of the situation in the region.

Israel is highly sceptical about the rebranded moderate political approach displayed by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of Hayat Taharir al Sham (HTS) and its preoccupations goes beyond the borders of Syria.

Yossi Kuperwasser, on leave general of the Israeli military intelligence (Aman) says that the fall of the Assad’s regime “is, of course, a very severe blow to the Iranian axis”

Yet, adds Kuperwasser:

“Assad was replaced mainly by other extremists from another axis, the axis of the Muslim Brotherhood and their allies. So we shall have to wait and see how things are unfolding in Syria”.

This is why, since the conquer of Damascus by the Hayat Taharir al Sham (HTS) militias and their allies, Israel has increased its preventive military pressure on Syrian military targets to avoid the ex Assad’s weaponry, provided by Russia in the past decades, to fall into the hands of the new masters of Syria.

As opposed, other regional powers and countries are concerned by the medium and longer terms intentions of Israel regarding the territorial integrity of Syria.   

On 10 December the Turkish president Recep Tayyip told the Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni on the phone that the incursions of the IDF are part of an “aggression that does not contribute to Syria’s stability”.

Türkiye has outspokenly criticized the occupation by Israel on the 10 of December of the buffer zone in the Golan Heights. This buffer zone is a UN established portion of the Golan plateau (formally recognized as Syrian) yet, occupied by Israel after the Six-Days War in 1967.

Netanyahu claimed that the Golan Heights will be “Israeli for eternity”.

“Türkiye and the Muslim Brotherhood are more or less the same thing. So, yes, the Muslim Brotherhood in different versions and in Turkey are behind many of the groups that make the Syrian new regime. And even if they are trying to keep a low profile in this respect, we know that these groups will not be able to arm themselves and operate without some Turkish support” concludes Kuperwasser.

The Lebanese fears

The end of Assad’s Syria has bisected the connections between Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah and inflicted a lethal hit to this weakened die-hard enemy of Israel.

The US has announced that Israel has started pulling-out the first military units from Southern Lebanon that are being replaced by the Lebanese Armed Forces according to the cease-fire between Israel and the Hezbollah.

After the war between the Hezbollah and the Israeli army, Lebanon is afraid of the new unknown threats that could come from Syria if the radicalism will prevail in Damascus.   

Bashir Khoder Mouhafez, the Lebanese governor of the Baalbek province, at the border with Syria, shares with Euronews some of his concerns:    

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“The Lebanese army is doing everything, first of all, to control the borders, which is a very difficult mission, especially when you don’t have someone from the other side of the border to work with or to have some kind of cooperation was”.

The main concerns of the Lebanese authorities derive at the moment from the refugees situation:

“Before the last Lebanese war, we used to have 2 million Syrians in Lebanon. Most of them were considered as refugees or displaced people in Lebanon. Around 400,000 Syrian. Now things are a little bit chaotic. Some people want to go back, some people that are running, trying to enter Lebanon” concludes Bachir Khoder Mouhafez.