“Over the past couple of years, with the heightened geopolitical interest and engagement in the Pacific, something a lot of other middle powers and major powers have struggled to do is to get PNG on a deal of exclusivity for security partnerships,” said Oliver Nobetau, a PNG government lawyer turned policy analyst at the Lowy Institute think tank.
Both prime ministers have sought to downplay the security aspect of the deals, framing them instead as a boon to what Mr Nobetau says has been a “thinning” relationship between the two countries.
Marape made a point to say the agreement “doesn’t stop us from relating with any nation, especially our Asian neighbours”.
“We relate with China, for instance, a great trading partner, a great bilateral partner,” he said. “But in security, closer to home… our shared territory needs to be protected, defended, policed… together.”
Government sources say the deals do not give Australia veto power over PNG security agreements. But their framing does have the effect of eliminating almost every other potential partner – and Mr Nobetau said the announcement could be seen by some in PNG as “an exertion of Australian power over PNG sovereignty”.
Both he and Dr Murray also note, however, that the dual deals speak to an emerging “transactional” dynamic in Pacific relations.
“People that talk about goodwill and who say sport and politics don’t mix, that’s the 20th century view,” Dr Murray said. “For us, there’s no way we’re going to give away one of our prize cultural assets for nothing. That doesn’t happen in diplomacy.”
Dr Murray and Mr Nobetau also both agree that the deals mark a significant moment in bilateral relations between the two countries – and are a likely indicator of how Australia is going to continue to pursue its agenda across the region.
“China puts in a lot of money into sport infrastructure… which is sort of what China is good at… [but] China is not going to be offering any alternatives in this space,” Mr Nobetau said.
“It’s something that other countries can’t do,” Dr Murray added. “We need to use it, especially in a very, very contested region such as the Pacific.”
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