American predictions that a ceasefire in Gaza is close have come up again against two seemingly immovable objects.
One is the Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, who wants Israel out of the Gaza Strip permanently, as well as a big release of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza.
The other is Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who has stuck to his insistence that Israel can and will win a total victory over Hamas.
The consensus in Israel is that he benefits from prolonging the war, despite pressure from hostage families and their supporters for a deal to get their people home.
The prime minister’s ultranationalist allies in his coalition have also threatened to bring down the government if he makes a deal.
Israel and its allies insist that taking the war to its old enemies in Lebanese Hezbollah is an entirely legitimate act of self-defence.
But there is fury and alarm in Lebanon and the wider region that Israel’s attacks appear to have been launched with little concern for bystanders and family members who have been wounded and killed alongside Hezbollah fighters.
CCTV footage showed a pager exploding in a crowded market as its owner shopped for food. Reports in Lebanon say a young girl was killed when her father’s pager exploded.
Hezbollah will be reeling from the attacks, but it will rapidly compose itself as an organisation and will find other ways to communicate. Lebanon is a small country and messages can easily be carried by hand.
Undoubtedly Hezbollah and its allies in Iran, whose ambassador to Beirut was wounded in the attack, will be licking their wounds at the moment.
But once again the region has been pushed right to the brink of an all-out war.
Sooner or later, if this continues, they will fall over the cliff.
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